Well it is quite simple. You shouldn’t look for it, it should come to you itself. You just have to be ready to take it, when it’s available. In this post I’m going to explain my method for looking the perfect bet. I will use the real data to show exactly, how I decided to take a bet.
For the restless, the bet that I decided to take is here: https://tipstertube.com/post/77873. I published my bet to Tipstertube.com on 20. July 2016, six hours before kickoff.
Now, how I got there? I’m going to give you detailed overview of seven areas I check before I make a bet.
Everything stars with a match list. You first have to search for matches that you’re going to analyse. I like to look for Bet365 In-Play Schedule. There I can see almost all the matches that are priced up for today and will come in-play. I also like Soccerway.com and Futbol24.com lists, but they don’t feature some matches and some of the games there will not be priced up.
On the writing day here were 359 games listed in Futbol24.com. No one can’t look into all of those games. So it is important to focus on certain games. I like to keep my daily focus list not longer than five matches per day. You could eliminate all the matches you don’t like, but I like to start with looking at the matches that intrest me. I always look for Estonian matches, so first off two Estonian Esiliiga B matches. Then I like one international friendly and one Champions League qualifier.
In the match list it is important to opt out most of the matches and focus on matches that you think will be interesting to focus on. From this point I’m going to give you details about one of those four matches, the JK Tallinna Kalev II – Viimsi JK one.
Second thing I look into, is league position. Looking at the league table I usually compare positions, point and goal differences and overall situation in the table. In the final third of the season I like to look promotion/relegation chances also.
Esiliiga B table shows me that Kalev II is a bit better team than Viimsi, but not as much league table shows. Big difference in goals also.
In form table I like to look at overall form and then Home and Away forms. Last 4-5 matches should tell the story, going back a lot longer may give you a wrong ideas.
Looking at this match form table I can see that Kalev has had two really big wins 5:0 and 6:0, but they are against Viljandi Tulevik II, who is in the bottom of the league. Before that they have lost to average sides. Viimsi seems to do well at home and awful away, losing 1:5 and 0:6. As an amateur side, it is a sign that all players can’t travel to away matches. So I shouldn’t care about the big goal difference in league table.
Form table tells me also that even tho Kalev has had two big wins in a row it shouldn’t be a big factor and Viimsi away form shouldn’t worry me too much as Tallinn and Viimsi are 10km away from each other.
When checking head-to-head results it is important to judge only the current year/season matches. Everything before that might help, but shouldn’t be considered as a big factor. Also it is better to compare league matches than friendlies or cup games.
From head-to-head to results I can see that Viimsi has done quite well against Kalev II. Important part here is that Viimsi did well on away match against Kalev II, so the usual bad away form should not be a factor.
Team news has become a huge part in sports betting. Big companies have much more analytical power than average punter, so they beat basic analytics guys easily. Thankfully team news is the part where analytics doesn’t matter.
When I start to look team news, I usually check league webpages, team webpages and social media. I look for injured/disciplined players, possible lineups, emotions in pre-match comments and overall anything that could change the outcome of the match.
For this match I checked official preview by Estonian Football Association. Even tho it is in Estonian it is quite easy to use google translate on foreign leagues or help of some friend, who can help to translate.
First off I see that Kalev II has one players who can’t play because of cards. He is first team player, but has played in couple of second team matches also. Secondly head coach comments. Viimsi coach praises last time win and hope to get another win against Kalev. Kalev II head coach on the other hand gives hugely important comment. He says that unfortunately the second team match is a day before first team match, so they can’t use any first team players against Viimsi. Also he worries about two day resting time and says that it will be a very hard match against team with uncomfortable style of play.
Other factors are anything else that may give advantage to one team. Like playing on grass or artificial turf or is it a derby match or is it festival match for the home team.
For this match the main “other factor” was reveled by Kalev’s head coach, that the first team is playing a day later than second team. Looking deeper to this comment I looked up that Kalev II has used first team players quite heavily and has had good results thanks to first team players. When playing with only second team players, their results are not that good.
Where is the bet?
Now to the real deal. From everything we learned from the information it is now important to make our own suggestion about the odds for this match.
I don’t have any mathematical formula for this. It is something that comes with time and experience. I bet there are some mathematical formulas also, but as information is so relative then I feel better going with my gut feel.
Back to our bet. What we learned so far:
- Kalev II better in league position
- Kalev II has had two big wins in a row, but against
- Viimsi has done awful away, but this time they have to travel only 10km
- Head-to-head Viimsi has been a bit better side
- Kalev II can’t use any first team players, like they are used to
From this information and previous experience I think the match should be valued -0.5 Asian handicap to Tallinna Kalev II. So Kalev should be a slight favorite for this match.
Now to the bookies side. Bet365 priced the match -1.75 Asian handicap to Tallinna Kalev II. So there is a huge 1.25 handicap difference between our and bookmaker valuation. To take benefit for this we need to be on Viimsi +1.75 Asian handicap. So even if Kalev wins with one goal as we expect, then we still win money.
After this analyse I made my own bet and then published it to Tipstertube as a tip. You can see it here: https://tipstertube.com/post/77873. I went for a medium size bet, because I have just started to publish some of my bets and don’t want to push too hard at first.
When deciding to take a bet or not, I have a simple formula to bets:
- Value <0.25 – No Bet
- Value 0.25-0.5 – Small Bet
- Value 0.5-1.0 – Medium Bet
- Value >1.0 – Large Bet
As expected Kalev II didn’t use first team players and Viimsi got a pretty good side together.
Match proceeded in our favor as first half didn’t see any goals. In the second half Kalev II took the lead as expected, but Viimsi manages to score also. The match ended 1:1 and our bet won easily.
Finding the perfect bet is not an easy task, but it is not impossible either. This example shows us, how the bet formed itself, as we didn’t have to predict anything. We just followed the seven steps and thankfully it got us a nice winning bet.
If you have any questions about finding bets or about my post, then feel free to leave a comment. I will answer all the questions.
Good luck finding you perfect bet!